Joel Elconin – Markets Continue To Fall: A Trade War Is War
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the PreMarket Prep Show joins us to discuss the markets continued fall, and if this could develop into a major market crash.
The discussion begins with an overview of the significant declines in major indices, including the S&P 500, Dow, NASDAQ, and Russell, highlighting the widespread market downturn. Joel elaborates on the limited support and uncertainty affecting market sentiment, emphasizing the role of geopolitical factors and US policy decisions. We discuss the implications of overvalued markets, algorithmic trading, and the impact of current US economic policies, such as tariffs, job cuts, and reduced government spending, on potential recession risks.
The conversation shifts to the ongoing trade wars and their global impact, leading to capital outflows from the US and a weakening dollar. Joel provides technical analysis, suggesting key levels for potential market corrections and emphasizes the shift from growth to value sectors in investing.
Miners move in conjunction with stocks during hard down days for stocks. You’re wasting your time if you expect that to change because it never will. Today counts as “hard down” as the Nasdaq 100 approached 5% down (XAU and HUI are down about 3.1% at the moment while NDX is down 3.8%).
YOY NDX is up almost 8% while GDX is up over 37%. YTD NDX is down 7.2% while GDX is up 20%.
These sectors have now (finally) completed their turns but most won’t believe it until it becomes much more obvious.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80713900077&a=1926264541
Regarding TSLA, there could be a bounce from this daily oversold level but the bigger that bounce is the more aggressive sellers it will attract. It was bullishly out of sync with the stock market when I said it was going up a few months ago but it no longer enjoys that position at all.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p24393986869&a=1926276800
Bitcoin is really just a vehicle for leverage to the Nasdaq. Those who think it’s going to protect them during a stock market collapse are in for a rude awakening.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p45828853984&a=1926389429
The USD was feeble today considering the carnage in stocks. UUP finished 1 cent below the 30 week MA.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56426057072&a=1453073823
IPT vs QQQ finished above the 55 day MA for the first time in almost 4 months.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14961798468&a=1718741939
Weekly TLT:SPY just hit its highest RSI in many years. Just one of countless bearish developments/details for the stock market.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT%3ASPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p15834622180&a=976582407
The HUI is up 219% since its January 2016 low while the S&P is up 210% since its January 2016 low. At best, the S&P was up 239% which happened this quarter and the HUI was up 277% which happened in Q3 2020 (4.5 years ago). So it is clear which one is leading but both benefitted very similarly from the central banks’ and governments’ ridiculous profligacy for the last 9 years. Now that some of that profligacy is being reined in which sector do you think will outperform?
Century-to-date also goes to the HUI and by a good margin: 326% vs 280%.
Today the Dow managed to break the 200 day MA as well as its double top neckline.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p63454820724&a=1926635492
Looks like TSLA is gunning to fill the gap at $219, then meander for a few days and off we go. By looking at the chart, this is a overreaction to Musk’s involvement with DOGE and X outage news. Not bullish with Silver miners looking at today’s action. Once again its been proved, mining stocks move in conjunction with general stock market and until that behavior changes, they are not going anywhere quick.